AbstractWe incorporate trade imbalances into a quantitative model of bilateral trade in manufactures, dividing the world into forty "countries." We calculate the pattern of bilateral trade and relative factor costs in a counterfactual world with all current accounts balancing. Our results indicate that closing the current accounts requires only modest changes in relative factor costs across countries. The extent of nontradability implied by the parameter estimates means that the implied changes in real factor returns are negligible. The geographic barriers implied by the current pattern of trade are sufficiently asymmetric that large bilateral deficits remain even after current accounts balance. The U.S. manufacturing trade deficit with China falls to only $65 billion from its current level of $167 billion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2007 Meeting Papers with number 921.
Date of creation: 2007
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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Other versions of this item:
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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