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An EVT Approach to calculating Risk Capital Requirements

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  • Chris Brooks

    ()
    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Gita Persand

    ()
    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Andrew D. Clare

    ()
    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

Abstract

This paper investigates the frequency of extreme events for three LIFFE futures contracts for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a semi-parametric approach where the tails are modelled by the Generalised Pareto Distribution and smaller risks are captured by the empirical distribution function. We compare the capital requirements from this approach with those calculated from the unconditional density and from a conditional density- a GARCH(1,1) model. Our primary finding is that for both in-sample and hold-out samples, our extreme value approach yields superior results than either of the other two models which do not explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Since the use of these internal models will be permitted under the EC-CAD II, they could be widely adopted in the near future by European financial institutions for determining capital adequacies. Hence, close scrutiny of competing models is required to avoid a potentially costly misallocation of capital resources while at the same time ensuring the safety of the financial system.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance with number icma-dp2000-07.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Risk Finance 2002, 3:2, 22 – 33.
Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2000-07

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Postal: PO Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading, Berks, RG6 6AA
Phone: +44 (0) 118 378 8226
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Web page: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/
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Related research

Keywords: Minimum Capital Risk Requirments; Generalised Pareto Distribution; GARCH models;

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References

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  1. Jon DANIELSSON & Casper G. DE VRIES, 2000. "Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 60, pages 239-270.
  2. repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
  4. Brooks, C. & Clare, A. D. & Persand, G., 2000. "A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1557-1574, October.
  5. Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March.
  6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
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