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The Own and Social Effects of an Unexpected Income Shock: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery

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Author Info
Peter Kuhn
Peter Kooreman
Adriaan R. Stoetevent
Arie Kapteyn

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Abstract

In the Dutch Postcode Lottery a postal code (19 households on average) is randomly selected weekly, and prizes Ðconsisting of cash and a new BMW-- are awarded to lottery participants living in that postal code. On average, this generates a temporary, unexpected income shock equal to about eight months of income for about one third of the households in a typical winning code, while leaving the incomes of nonwinning, neighboring households unaffected. The authors study the responses of consumption and reported happiness of both winners and nonwinners to these shocks. Consistent with simple models of in-kind transfers, the overwhelming majority of households who won a BMW convert it into cash. With the exception of food away from home, the only 'own' effects of cash winnings they detect are on durables expenditures and car consumption; these results support a version of the permanent income hypothesis in which durable spending is used to smooth consumption. They detect social effects of neighbors' winnings on two types of consumption: cars and exterior home renovations. Six months after the fact, winning the lottery does not make households happier, nor do neighbors' winnings reduce happiness.

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Paper provided by RAND Corporation Publications Department in its series Working Papers with number 574.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ran:wpaper:574

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Related research
Keywords: social interactions; quasi-experiments;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  5. Gardner, Jonathan & Oswald, Andrew J., 2006. "Money and Mental Wellbeing : A Longitudinal Study of Medium-Sized Lottery Wins," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 754, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Esther Duflo & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "The Role Of Information And Social Interactions In Retirement Plan Decisions: Evidence From A Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 815-842, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju & Seppo Ikaheimo, 2004. "Interpersonal Effects in Consumption: Evidence from the Automobile Purchases of Neighbors," NBER Working Papers 10226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Betsey Stevenson & Justin Wolfers, 2008. "Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Martin Browning & Thomas Crossley, 2003. "Shocks, Stocks and Socks," Department of Economics Working Papers 2003-07, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Manski, Charles F, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 531-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frijters, Paul & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A., 2008. "Happiness Dynamics with Quarterly Life Event Data," IZA Discussion Papers 3604, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian Ghiglino & Sanjeev Goyal, 2008. "Keeping up with the neighbours: social interaction in a market economy," Economics Discussion Papers 655, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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