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Why Did the Welfare Caseload Decline?

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  • Jacob Alex Klerman
  • Caroline Danielson
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    Abstract

    A substantial literature has considered the effects of welfare reform policies on the aggregate caseload but has been less successful in disaggregating the effects of specific policies. Using monthly caseload data from October 1989 through June 2003, we estimate a flexible model for the dynamic response of the welfare caseload to the economy and to the three major welfare reform policies. Our results are consistent with the predictions of economic theory and indicate the importance of carefully specifying the intensity and dynamics of policy changes and of including a rich set of measures of the economy.

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    File URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/2005/RAND_WR167.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by RAND Corporation Publications Department in its series Working Papers with number 167.

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    Length: 59 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ran:wpaper:167

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    1. Rebecca M. Blank, 1997. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," NBER Working Papers 6343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2003. "Some Evidence on Race, Welfare Reform, and Household Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 293-298, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Giulio Zanella, 2008. "Welfare Stigma or Information Sharing? Decomposing Social Interactions Effects in Social Benefit Use," Department of Economics University of Siena 531, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Jeremy Arkes & Jacob Klerman, 2009. "Understanding the link between the economy and teenage sexual behavior and fertility outcomes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 517-536, July.
    3. Leonard, Jonathan & Mas, Alexandre, 2008. "Welfare reform, time limits, and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1551-1566, December.
    4. Caroline Danielson & Jacob Alex Klerman, 2006. "Why Did the Food Stamp Caseload Decline (and Rise)? Effects of Policies and the Economy," Working Papers 386, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
    5. Adam Looney, 2005. "The effects of welfare reform and related policies on single mothers' welfare use and employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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