The Relationship Between the Economy and the Welfare Caseload: A Dynamic Approach
AbstractNationally, the welfare caseload declined by more than fifty percent between 1994 and 2000. Considerable research has been devoted to understanding what caused this decline. Much of the literature examining these changes has modeled the total caseload (the stock) directly. Klerman and Haider (2001) model the underlying flows and show analytically and empirically that previous methods are likely to be biased because they ignore important dynamics. However, due to their focus on the bias of the stock models, they present only limited results concerning the robustness of their findings and utilize only a single measure of economic conditions, the unemployment rate. This paper examines the robustness of the basic stock-flow model developed in Klerman and Haider (2001), considering both richer dynamic specifications and richer measures of economic condition. The authors find that more complex dynamic specifications do not change the substantive conclusions, but richer measures of the economy do. While a model that only includes the unemployment rate attributes about half of the California caseload decline between 1995 and 1998 to the economy, models that incorporate richer measures of the economy attribute more than ninety percent of the decline to the economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by RAND Corporation Publications Department in its series Working Papers with number 03-06.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138
Web page: http://www.rand.org/pubs/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bartik, Timothy J., 1996.
"The Distributional Effects of Local Labor Demand and Industrial Mix: Estimates Using Individual Panel Data,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 150-178, September.
- Timothy J. Bartik, . "The Distributional Effects of Local Labor Demand and Industrial Mix: Estimates Using Individual Panel Data," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles tjb1996, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1993. "When Do Women Use AFDC & Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility vs. Participation," NBER Working Papers 4429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
- Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
- Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 1999.
"Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads,"
JCPR Working Papers
74, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 199. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Sheldon H. Danziger (ed.), Economic Conditions and Welfare Reform, chapter 5, pages 119-157 W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 1999. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 99-54, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, October.
- Haider, Steven J. & Klerman, Jacob Alex, 2005.
"Dynamic properties of the welfare caseload,"
Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 629-648, October.
- Jeffrey Grogger, 2003.
"Welfare Transitions in the 1990s: The Economy, Welfare Policy, and the EITC,"
NBER Working Papers
9472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Grogger, 2004. "Welfare transitions in the 1990s: The economy, welfare policy, and the EITC," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 671-695.
- Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood, 2004. "Welfare Reform and Immigrant Participation in the Supplemental Security Income Program," Working Papers wp087, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benson Wong).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.