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Impact du taux de change sur la sécurité alimentaire des pays en développement

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Author Info

  • Marilyne Huchet Bourdon
  • Catherine Laroche Dupraz
  • Anned-Linz Sénadin

Abstract

[Paper in French] The issue of world food security is still at the core of international concerns with the rising prices of agricultural products over the period 2006-2008. In this context, most of the least developed countries are net importers of agricultural products since the beginning of the 1990s. Moreover, recent years have also been marked by the debate on exchange rates, as evidenced by the Yuan/dollar currencies dispute. In line with the literature on the relationship between the exchange rate and trade, the objective of this article is to evaluate the relationship between the exchange rate and food security over the period 1995-2010 on a sample of 24 to 72 developing countries. In addition, we propose a theoretical framework to highlight the economic links between food security, measured by the indicator of Bonilla, the value of the currencies of the countries and the terms of trade. This theoretical analysis suggests that a depreciation of the national currency leads in the short term to a deterioration of food security (measured with Bonilla Index) due to the higher bill of food imports and the decrease in export revenues. The long term relationship depends on the price elasticities of demand for food imports, the supply of exports and of the ratio of imported food prices relative to prices of other imported products. Finally, two case studies (one on the Gambia, the other on the Côte d'Ivoire) suggest that the exchange rate is not the sole determinant of food insecurity. The level of food security may also depends on other variables such as investments, the level of customs duties, the terms of trade, the money supply and political stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by INRA UMR SMART in its series Working Papers SMART - LERECO with number 201310.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rae:wpaper:201310

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Keywords: exchange rate; food security; Bonilla Index; developing countries;

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References

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  1. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
  2. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
  3. Masset, Edoardo, 2011. "A review of hunger indices and methods to monitor country commitment to fighting hunger," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages S102-S108.
  4. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Thomas, Marcelle & Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea, 2000. "Food security and trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization," TMD discussion papers 59, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  6. Bruno Coric & Geoff Pugh, 2010. "The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2631-2644.
  7. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
  8. Ozturk, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 85-102.
  9. Masset, Edoardo, 2011. "A review of hunger indices and methods to monitor country commitment to fighting hunger," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages S102-S108, January.
  10. Kargbo, J.M., 2005. "Impacts of monetary and macroeconomic factors on food prices in West Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(2), June.
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