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Phase randomisation: a convergence diagnostic test for MCMC

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Author Info
Rodney C Wolff
Darfiana Nur
Kerrie L Mengersen (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)
Abstract

Most MCMC users address the convergence problem by applying diagnostic tools to the output produced by running their samplers. Potentially useful diagnostics may be borrowed from diverse areas such as time series. One such method is phase randomisation. The aim of this paper is to describe this method in the context of MCMC, summarise its characteristics, and contrast its performance with those of the more common diagnostic tests for MCMC. It is observed that the new tool contributes information about third and higher order cumulant behaviour which is important in characterising certain forms of nonlinearity and nonstationarity.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series Rodney Wolff Papers with number 2006-4.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qut:rwolff:2006-4

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Keywords: Convergence diagnostics higher cumulants Markov Chain Monte Carlo non-linear time series stationarity surrogate series

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  1. Nur, Darfiana & Wolff, Rodney C. & Mengersen, Kerrie L., 2001. "Phase randomisation: numerical study of higher cumulants behaviour," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 487-513, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert, C.P. & Ryden, T. & Titterington, D.M., 1998. "Convergence Controls for MCMC Algorithms with Applications to Hidden Markov Chains," Papers 9805, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques-.
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