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The Prospects for Geographic Diversification in UK Regional Property Investment: Implications Derived from Multivariate Cointegration Analysis

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Author Info
Helen Higgs
Andrew C. Worthington
Abstract

This paper examines the short and long-term comovements among UK regional property markets over the period 1976-2001. The markets examined are London, Outer South-East, East Anglia, South West, East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, North and North West. Multivariate cointegration procedures, Granger non-causality tests, level VAR and generalised variance decomposition analyses based on error-correction and vector autoregressive models are conducted to analyse short and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary long-run relationship and significant long-run causal linkages between the various UK property markets. In terms of the percentage of variance explained other regional markets are generally more important than innovations in a given region, though this is not the case for the Outer South-East which is extremely segmented from the remaining markets, as is, to a lesser extent, the North and North West. This suggests that opportunities exist for portfolio diversification in UK regional property market.

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File URL: http://www.bus.qut.edu.au/faculty/schools/economics/documents/discussionPapers/2002/DP%20No%20111.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 111.

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Date of creation: 20 Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:111

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Related research
Keywords: Regional property markets; Portfolio diversification; Short and long-run relationships;

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  1. Vinod Chandrashekaran, 1999. "Time-Series Properties and Diversification Benefits of REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 91-112. [Downloadable!]
  2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eichholtz, Piet & Koedijk, Kees & Schweitzer, Mark, 2001. "Global property investment and the costs of international diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 349-366, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Tuluca, Sorin A & Myer, F C Neil & Webb, James R, 2000. "Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 279-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Graff, Richard A & Young, Michael S, 1996. "Real Estate Return Correlations: Real-World Limitations on Relationships Inferred from NCREIF Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 121-42, September.
  9. David Hartzell & John Hekman & Mike Miles, 1986. "Diversification Categories in Investment Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 230-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Piet Eichholtz & Ronald Huisman & Kees Koedijk & Lisa Schuin, 1998. "Continental Factors in International Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 493-509. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Patrick J. Wilson & John Okunev, 1999. "Long-Term Dependencies and Long Run non-Periodic Co-Cycles: Real Estate and Stock Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 257-278. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jack H. Rubens & David A. Louton & Elizabeth J. Yobaccio, 1998. "Measuring the Significance of Diversification Gains," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 73-86. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ping Cheng & Alan J. Ziobrowski & Royce W. Caines & Brigette J. Ziobrowski, 1999. "Uncertainty and Foreign Real Estate Investment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 463-480. [Downloadable!]
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