International SVAR Factor Modelling
AbstractModels of Australia proxy international linkages using the US, despite Japan being an equivalent trading partner. This paper uses a Kahnan filter to extract US and Japanese reference cycles which are then used in an SVAR model of the Australian economy. The US and Japanese shocks are interpreted to be aggregate demand and interest rate shocks respectively. The results show that US shocks axe dominant for Australian outcomes, but the model is misspecified if Japan is excluded. The role of Japan is to dampen expansionary US shocks. Further, Australian monetary policy responds to domestic conditions, rather than international monetary policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 109.
Date of creation: 20 Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Structural VAR; latent factors; Kalman filter.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998.
"A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04.
- A Garratt & K Lee & M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," ESE Discussion Papers 35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Fabio Canova, 1994.
"Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?,"
Economics Working Papers
113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
- Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
- Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994.
"Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
- J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Klock, John, 1988. "State-space estimates of international business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 231-234.
- Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993.
"Is There a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C93-025, University of California at Berkeley.
- Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997.
"Measuring World Business Cycles,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
- Henry, Olan T & Summers, Peter M, 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 365-73, December.
- Ghysels, Eric, 1994.
"On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-98, July.
- Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
- Nicolas de Roos & Bill Russell, 1996. "Towards an Understanding of Australia’s Co-movement with Foreign Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9607, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Selover, David D., 1997. "Business cycle transmission between the United States and Japan: A vector error correction approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 385-411, August.
- Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995.
"Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates,"
95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Peter M. Summers, 1999. "Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Melbourne Institute," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(2), pages 197-205.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000.
"International linkages and macroeconomic news effects on interest rate volatility -- Australia and the US,"
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 85-113, March.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 1998. "International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US'," Working Papers 11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992.
"Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Selover, David D. & Round, David K., 1996. "Business cycle transmission and interdependence between Japan and Australia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 569-602.
- Jordan Shan & Nick Pappas, 2000. "The relative impacts of Japanese and US interest rates on local interest rates in Australia and Singapore: a Granger causality test," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 291-298.
- Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April.
- Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
- Felmingham, Bruce & Qing, Zhang & Healy, Tanya, 2000. "The Interdependence of Australian and Foreign Real Interest Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 163-71, June.
- Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
- Kathleen Goffey & Andrew Worthington, 2002. "Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 117, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Fletcher).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.