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Market Timing and Selectivity: Evidence from Australian Equity Superannuation Funds

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Author Info

  • Michael E. Drew
  • Madhu Veeraraghavan
  • Vanessa Wilson

Abstract

In this performance evaluation study, two questions are addressed. First, do active fund managers possess macro and micro forecasting skills that deliver superior risk-adjusted returns? Second, what is the nature of market timing/stock selectivity trade off in the generation of alpha? The answers from this study are as follows: as an industry, managers delivered inferior returns for superannuation investors for the period 1991 through 1999. The study provides little evidence that the Australian funds management industry holds sufficient macro and/or micro forecasting abilities to generate positive alpha. While previous research has found that inferior market timing decisions are compensated for by superior stock selection skills, this study finds no substantive inverse relationship between timing and selectivity.

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File URL: http://external-apps.qut.edu.au/business/documents/discussionPapers/2002/DP%20No%20105.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 105.

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Date of creation: 20 Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:105

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Postal: GPO Box 2434, BRISBANE QLD 4001
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Web page: http://www.bus.qut.edu.au/faculty/economics/
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Related research

Keywords: Performance evaluation; Timing; Selectivity.;

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References

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  1. Henriksson, Roy D, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 73-96, January.
  2. Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-65, June.
  3. Hallahan, Terrence A. & Faff, Robert W., 1999. "An examination of Australian equity trusts for selectivity and market timing performance," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 387-402, November.
  4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  5. Jagannathan, Ravi & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1986. "Assessing the Market Timing Performance of Managed Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 217-35, April.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  7. Grant, Dwight, 1977. "Portfolio Performance and the "Cost" of Timing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 837-46, June.
  8. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock-Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1703, 08.
  10. Lee, Cheng Few & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1990. "Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 261-78, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Kathleen Goffey & Andrew Worthington, 2002. "Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 117, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.

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