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What Is A Recession?: A Reprise

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  • Allan P. Layton
  • Anirvan Banerji

Abstract

This paper draws its title from a paper written over 30 years ago by Geoffrey H. Moore (1967). Why the need for a reprise? First, there would appear currently to be somewhat diverging views – particularly in Australia – as to what properly constitutes a recession. Second, largely as a result of this, in Australia and many other countries other than the US, there is no single widely-accepted business cycle chronology for the country in question. This paper will argue that in addition to an output dimension, there are other important dimensions to aggregate economic activity which need to be taken into account in determining the business cycle, viz., income, sales and employment. As such, our perspective would seem to be at odds with the apparent position taken by other recent Australian commentators on this issue who argue that GDP is all that is needed to represent Australia’s business cycle. We will also argue strongly against using the currently popular ‘two negative quarterly growth rate’ rule in dating the onset of a recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 095.

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Date of creation: 20 Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:095

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References

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  1. M Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 17, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  2. Allan P. Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "Dating the Indian Business Cycle: Is Output All That Counts?," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 231-240, January.
  3. Theodore M. Crone, 2000. "A new look at economic indexes for the states in the Third District," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
  4. repec:sae:niesru:v:161:y::i:1:p:84-89 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, May.
  6. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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Cited by:
  1. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  2. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  3. Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low & Cormac O'Dea, 2012. "Household consumption through recent recessions," IFS Working Papers W12/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  4. Conor Keegan & Steve Thomas & Charles Normand & Conceição Portela, 2013. "Measuring recession severity and its impact on healthcare expenditure," International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 139-155, June.
  5. Pami Dua & ANIRVAN BANERJI, 2011. "Predicting Recessions And Slowdowns--A Robust Approach," Working papers 202, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  6. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2010. "Synchronization of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies," Working Papers id:2859, eSocialSciences.
  7. Kathleen Goffey & Andrew Worthington, 2002. "Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 117, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  8. Adél Bosch & Franz Ruch, 2012. "An alternative business cycle dating procedure for South Africa," Working Papers 267, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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