Portfolio allocation: Getting the most out of realised volatility
AbstractRecent advances in the measurement of volatility have utilized high frequency intraday data to produce what are generally known as realised volatility estimates. It has been shown that forecasts generated from such estimates are of positive economic value in the context of portfolio allocation. This paper considers the link between the value of such forecasts and the loss function under which models of realised volatility are estimated. It is found that employing a utility based estimation criteria is preferred over likelihood estimation, however a simple mean squared error criteria performs in a similar manner. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility models based on realised volatility are estimated when one wishes to inform the portfolio allocation decision.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 54.
Date of creation: 10 Mar 2010
Date of revision: 06 May 2010
Volatility; utility; portfolio allocation; realized volatility; MIDAS;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-03-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2010-03-28 (Forecasting)
- NEP-UPT-2010-03-28 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
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