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Intraday Patterns in FX Returns and Order Flow

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  • Francis Breedon

    ()
    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Angelo Ranaldo

    (University St. Gallen)

Abstract

Using a comprehensive high-frequency foreign exchange dataset, we present evidence of time-of-day effects in foreign exchange returns through a significant tendency for currencies to depreciate during local trading hours. We confirm this pattern across a range of currencies and time zones. We also find that this pattern is reflected in order flow and suggest that both patterns relate to the tendency of market participants to be net purchasers of foreign exchange in their own trading hours. Data from a single market maker appears to corroborate that interpretation.

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File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/doc/wp694.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 694.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp694

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Keywords: Foreign exchange; Microstructure; Order flow; Liquidity;

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References

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  1. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-339, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An empirical study of liquidity and information effects of order flow on exchange rates," Working Paper Series 0424, European Central Bank.
  3. Hau, Harald & Massa, Massimo & Peress, Joël, 2005. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 4862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, 04.
  5. Stavros Panageas & Janice C. Eberly & Andrew B. Abel, 2011. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market with Information Costs and Transactions Costs," 2011 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2199-2206, December.
  7. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Paper 2010/26, Norges Bank.

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