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How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?

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  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Pilipinas Quising

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Xin-Hua He

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

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Abstract

Investment-driven growth has long been regarded as a key development strategy in China. This paper investigates empirically the validity of this view. Post-1990 data analyses and macroeconometric model simulations show that market demand has become a regular force in driving investment since reforms, that non-demand-driven investment growth contributes to increasing capital-output ratio far more than output growth, that government investment exerts a pivotal role in amplifying investment cycles, albeit effective in promoting employment, and that delayed and rising consumption from current investment surge can help sustain the impact of growth even with constant-returns-to-scale in the long-run GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 545.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp545

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Keywords: Investment; Growth; Impulse response function; Cointegration; Granger non-causality;

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Cited by:
  1. Sethi, Amarjit Singh & Kaur, Supreet, 2013. "Physical Capital Formation And Income Relationships: A Temporal Analysis For Punjab And Haryana," Journal of Regional Development and Planning, JRDP, vol. 2(2), pages 109-130.
  2. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Abdul Karim, Bakri & Ahmad, Riayati, 2010. "Fixed investment, household consumption, and economic growth : a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) study of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 27146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Francisco, Ruth & Wan, Guanghua, 2009. "How is the Global Recession Impacting on Poverty and Social Spending? An ex ante assessment methodology with applications to developing Asia," MPRA Paper 18885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Il Houng Lee & Murtaza H. Syed & Liu Xueyan, 2013. "China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth," IMF Working Papers 13/83, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2006. "From Liberalization To Investment and Jobs: Lost in Translation," Working Papers 2006/3, Turkish Economic Association.
  6. Harb, Nasri, 2008. "Oil Exports, Non Oil GDP and Investment in the GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 15576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy," Working Papers 553, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. Abdelhafidh, Samir, 2013. "Potential financing sources of investment and economic growth in North African countries: A causality analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 150-169.
  9. Tomohara, Akinori & Takii, Sadayuki, 2011. "Does globalization benefit developing countries? Effects of FDI on local wages," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 511-521, May.
  10. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
  11. Xing, Yuqing & Pradhananga, Manisha, 2013. "How Important are Exports and Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China?," ADBI Working Papers 427, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  12. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2013. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 781-797.
  13. Germaschewski, Yin, 2013. "Reserve financing and government infrastructure investment: An application to China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 992-1013.
  14. Mah, Jai S., 2010. "Foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth of China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-158, January.
  15. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo, 2009. "Effects of income inequality on China's economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 69-86.

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