Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case
AbstractThis paper develops empirical methods of assessing the sustainability and feasibility of public debt using the No Ponzi Game criterion, using the Philippines as the testing case. Both historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macro-econometric model are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 527.
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Government debt; Ponzi game; Rollover bond portfolio;
Other versions of this item:
- Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006. "Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-84, February.
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-04-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2005-04-03 (Development)
- NEP-PBE-2005-04-03 (Public Economics)
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