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Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case

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Author Info
Duo Qin () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Marie Anne Cagas (Asian Development Bank)
Geoffrey Ducanes (Asian Development Bank)
Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos (Asian Development Bank)
Pilipinas F. Quising (Asian Development Bank)

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Abstract

This paper develops empirical methods of assessing the sustainability and feasibility of public debt using the No Ponzi Game criterion, using the Philippines as the testing case. Both historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macro-econometric model are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.

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File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/doc/wp527.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 527.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp527

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Related research
Keywords: Government debt Ponzi game Rollover bond portfolio

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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