How Much Did Excess Debt Contribute to the 1997 Currency Crisis in Korea?
AbstractIt is widely believed that seriously excess debt problems form a major cause of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This paper investigates empirically the role of the debt problems with respect to both the won/$US rate fluctuations and the won collapse in November 1997. The problems are represented by two institutional variables in nonlinear equilibrium-correction models. The variables are found to exert positive feedback effects on the won rate returns in three forms: disequilibrium in levels, short-run shocks and explosive bubbles. However, the estimated effects are not so singly conspicuous as to serve as the predictor of a likely crash in the won rate in late 1997. Excess debt is hence found to only constitute one of the many factors which brought about the 1997 won collapse.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 407.
Date of creation: Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Disequilibrium; Currency crisis; Excess debt; Institutional variable; Self-fulfilling effect; Intrinsic bubble; Soft-budget constraint;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
- O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-09-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-1999-09-27 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MON-1999-09-27 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdÃ©s, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000.
"Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility,"
in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 61-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Capital flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," Working Papers 98.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 6530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 1998. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 1889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994.
"Contagious speculative attacks,"
BIS Working Papers
22, Bank for International Settlements.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- KornÃ©lia KrajnyÃ¡k & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
- Malcolm D. Knight, 1998. "Developing Countries and the Globalization of Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 98/105, International Monetary Fund.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996.
"Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
- Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth & DEC, 1994. "Is the debt crisis history? Recent private capital inflows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1327, The World Bank.
- Knight, Malcolm, 1998. "Developing Countries and the Globalization of Financial Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1185-1200, July.
- Blackburn, Keith, 1988. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes and exchange rate dynamics: Some further examples," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 373-385.
- Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. " A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
- Gultekin, Mustafa N & Gultekin, N Bulent & Penati, Alessandro, 1989. " Capital Controls and International Capital Market Segmentation: The Evidence from the Japanese and American Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 849-69, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nick Vriend).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.