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Where is Australian Power headed in 2035?

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Author Info

  • Lynette Molyneaux

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Craig Froome

    ()
    (Business School, University of Queensland)

  • Liam Wagner

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

Australia’s plentiful supply of coal has defined the structure of its stationary energy power generation and consumption. Economies of scale derived from large coal-fired generation have enabled the supply of affordable electricity and encouraged investment in power intensive industries. As we look to 2035, Australia’s plentiful supply of coal seam gas could dominate the future structure of its power economy but it will be subject to the vagaries of international energy price volatility and environmental costs if carbon price is applied globally. Uncertain electricity prices as a result of global energy and carbon price volatility will discourage electricity and capital intensive investment in Australia. We seek to understand the consequences of a gas-centric policy environment on Australian power in 2035.We conduct scenario analysis of the options facing the stationary energy industry by modelling the provision of electricity in 2035. In particular we seek to understand how the roll-out of large-scale solar thermal and solar photovoltaic power would alter the structure of the power economy and its ability to sustain energy-intensive industry. In order to facilitate the comparative analysis, we use a resilience index as a strategic, top down barometer of power economy performance because it allows a systematic and rational appraisal of the relative efficiency, diversity and security of power systems. Our findings provide an indicator of how energy-intensive industries will view investment in Australia over the coming decades.

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File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/docs/workingpapers/2012-10.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers with number 10-2012.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:10-2012

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Keywords: RESILIENCE; ELECTRICITY; RENEWABLE ENERGY; DISTRIBUTED GENERATION;

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References

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  1. Lynette Molyneaux & Liam Wagner & Craig Froome & John Foster, 2012. "Resilience and electricity systems: a comparative analysis," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 15, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  2. William Lilley & Luke Reedman & Liam Wagner & Colin Alie & Anthony Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 16, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  3. Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2012. "Australian Power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  4. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
  5. Barry Ball & Bertram Ehmann & John Foster & Craig Froome & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Paul Meredith & Lynette Molyneaux & Tapan Saha & Liam Wagner, 2011. "Delivering a Competitive Australian Power System. Part 1: Australia’s Global Position," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
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Cited by:
  1. Wagner, Liam & Molyneaux, Lynette & Foster, John, 2014. "The magnitude of the impact of a shift from coal to gas under a Carbon Price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 280-291.
  2. Lynette Molyneaux & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2012. "Australian Power: Can renewable technologies change the dominant industry view?," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 13-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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