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Time-Series Econometrics of the Real and Financial Effects of Capital Flows: Selected Cases in Africa and Southern Asia

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  • J Benson Durham

Abstract

Few studies address the real effects of international capital flows. Instead of a cross-sectional design, this study exclusively examines time-series data from nine countries. Four cases - Nigeria, Zimbabwe, India, and Pakistan - produce evidence that either FDI or FPI adversely affect growth or savings rates, while two cases produce some evidence of a benevolent effect - Uganda and Sri Lanka. The data for Kenya, Zambia, and Bangladesh largely produce ambiguous results, and in fact, the vast majority of models across all cases indicate no significant relation. The preponderance of negative effects is largely consistent with the notion that lower income countries lack sufficient 'absorptive capacity' to harness foreign investment.

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File URL: http://www3.qeh.ox.ac.uk/RePEc/qeh/qehwps/qehwps56.pdf
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Paper provided by Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford in its series QEH Working Papers with number qehwps56.

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Handle: RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps56

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  1. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
  2. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
  3. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-58, June.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1998. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 6669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  7. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. J Benson Durham, . "Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps53, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  11. J Benson Durham, . "Econometrics of the Real Effects of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," QEH Working Papers qehwps52, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
  12. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
  13. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1992. "What Explains Developing Country Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Eduardo Borensztein & Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1995. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
  16. V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford., . "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Working Papers ec18/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  17. J Benson Durham, . "Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects: Some Sensitivity Analyses," QEH Working Papers qehwps51, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
  18. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
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Cited by:
  1. Carike Claassen & Elsabé Loots & Henri Bezuidenhout, 2011. "Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Africa," Working Papers 261, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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