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Time-Series Econometrics of the Real and Financial Effects of Capital Flows: Selected Cases in Africa and Southern Asia

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J Benson Durham

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Abstract

Few studies address the real effects of international capital flows. Instead of a cross-sectional design, this study exclusively examines time-series data from nine countries. Four cases - Nigeria, Zimbabwe, India, and Pakistan - produce evidence that either FDI or FPI adversely affect growth or savings rates, while two cases produce some evidence of a benevolent effect - Uganda and Sri Lanka. The data for Kenya, Zambia, and Bangladesh largely produce ambiguous results, and in fact, the vast majority of models across all cases indicate no significant relation. The preponderance of negative effects is largely consistent with the notion that lower income countries lack sufficient 'absorptive capacity' to harness foreign investment.

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File URL: http://www3.qeh.ox.ac.uk/RePEc/qeh/qehwps/qehwps56.pdf
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Paper provided by Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford in its series QEH Working Papers with number qehwps56.

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Handle: RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps56

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. J Benson Durham, . "Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps53, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," Discussion Paper Series a371, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  4. J Benson Durham, . "Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects: Some Sensitivity Analyses," QEH Working Papers qehwps51, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  5. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-58, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1998. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 6669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1994. "What Explains Developing Country Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Eduardo Borensztein & Jong-Wha Lee & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 94/110, International Monetary Fund.
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  11. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  14. J Benson Durham, . "Econometrics of the Real Effects of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," QEH Working Papers qehwps52, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  15. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
  17. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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