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Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862-1879

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Author Info

  • Gregor W. Smith

    ()
    (Queen's University)

  • R. Todd Smith

    ()
    (University of Alberta)

Abstract

We propose a unified framework for studying the greenback-gold price during the U.S. suspension of convertibility from 1862 to 1879. The gold price is viewed as a floating exchange rate, with a fixed destination given by gold standard parity because of the prospect of resumption. We test this perspective using daily data for the entire period, and measure the effect of news during and after the Civil War. New evidence of a decline in the volatility of gold returns after the Resumption Act of 1875 provides statistical support for the importance of expectations of resumption.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1255.pdf
File Function: First version 1996
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1255.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: forthcoming in the Journal of Economic History
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1255

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Keywords: greenbacks; gold standard; regime switching;

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References

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  1. Burdekin Richard C. K. & Langdana Farrokh K., 1993. "War Finance in the Southern Confederacy, 1861-1865," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 352-376, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Sébastien PENTECOTE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change? Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2003012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 2003. "Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6f15n0h0, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2011. "The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis," CQE Working Papers 2011, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  4. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.

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