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Likelihood inference for a nonstationary fractional autoregressive model

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Author Info
Søren Johansen () (University of Copenhagen and CREATES)
Morten Ørregaard Nielsen () (Queen's University and CREATES)

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Abstract

This paper discusses model-based inference in an autoregressive model for fractional processes based on the Gaussian likelihood. The model has a verifiable criterion in terms of the roots of a polynomial for the process to be fractional of order d or d-b. Fractional differencing involves infinitely many past values and because we are interested in nonstationary processes we model the data X_{1},...,X_{T} given the initial values X_{-n}, n=0,1,..., as is usually done. The initial values are not modeled but assumed to be bounded. This represents a considerable generalization relative to all previous work where it is assumed that they are all zero. We consider the Gaussian likelihood and its derivatives as stochastic processes in the parameters which include d and b, and prove that they converge in distribution when the errors are i.i.d. with suitable moment conditions. We use this to prove existence and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator, and to find the asymptotic distribution of the estimators and the likelihood ratio test of the associated fractional unit root hypothesis, which contains the fractional Brownian motion of type II.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1172.pdf
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1172.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1172

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Related research
Keywords: Dickey-Fuller test fractional unit root likelihood inference

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Newey, Whitney K, 1991. "Uniform Convergence in Probability and Stochastic Equicontinuity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1161-67, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nielsen, Morten rregaard, 2004. "Efficient Likelihood Inference In Nonstationary Univariate Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 116-146, March. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 549-582, August. [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:241-57 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ignacio N. Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2005. "Efficient Wald Tests For Fractional Unit Roots," Economics Working Papers we056935, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ling, Shiqing & Li, W.K., 2001. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving-Average Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 738-764, July. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008. "Nonparametric Cointegration Analysis of Fractional Systems With Unknown Integration Orders," Working Papers 1174, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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