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Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes

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  • Álvaro M. Pina

Abstract

Drawing on the European Commission’s Autumn forecasts, I estimate fiscal reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging from budget plans to final outcomes. I also analyse deviations from plans during budget implementation. In a panel of 15 EU countries from 1987 to 2006, moving from plans to final data generally weakens the counter-cyclicality of budget balances and expenditures (though not of revenues), and reinforces electoral effects. Deviations from plans play a negligible role in the former finding, as they are often acyclical;but have a major role in the latter, as they display a clear opportunistic pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro M. Pina, 2009. "Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes," Working Papers w200906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 43-59, January.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
    3. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    4. Katja Schmidt & Antoine Sigwalt, 2022. "Fiscal policy orientation in the euro area in real-time," Working papers 896, Banque de France.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation: euro area analysis based on real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
    7. Xisco Oliver Rullán & Joan Rosselló Villalonga, 2018. "The Determinants of Regional Budget Forecast Errors in Federal Economies: Spain 1995-2013," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 226(3), pages 85-121, September.
    8. Patricia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2013. "The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter & Bluhm, Benjamin, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 8413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation : euro area analysis based on real time data," Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
    11. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2012, Bank of Finland.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_034 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.

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