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What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?

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  • Fátima Cardoso
  • Paulo Soares Esteves

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of Portuguese terms of trade over the last decades. Firstly, their evolution is described: (i) terms of trade registered an upward trend since the second half of the 80s, after the apparent stability observed since 1950; (ii) this was a generalized phenomenon across OECD countries; (iii) and it was specially linked to a very contained evolution of import prices. Secondly, terms of trade are broken down by groups of products, and their evolution is decomposed into two components. The first component results from differences in the composition of import and export baskets of goods (inter-sector specialization), while the second emerges from deviations from the law of one price in each sector (intra-sector segmentation). The results show that terms of trade developments were dominated by the specialization effects related to the evolution of oil prices. Excluding energy and focusing in the manufactured goods, the increase in terms of trade is strongly connected with the positive evolution of relative prices inside each sector, in particular in the usually designated traditional sectors: textiles, clothing and footwear. The effects of globalization on import prices and the structural changes in those manufacturing sectors in Portugal are pointed out as explanations for this phenomenon.

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File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/WP200805.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200805.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200805

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  1. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-112, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Loening, Josef L. & Higashi, Masato, 2011. "Decomposing Terms of Trade Fluctuations in Ethiopia," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48727, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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