This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Raouf Boucekkine
Jean-Pierre Laffargue

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics. In particular, we analytically characterise the short and medium term consequences of epidemics for population size, age pyramid, economic performance and income distribution. To this end, we develop a three-period overlapping generations where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of (junior) adults and children depend on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. The model emphasizes the role of orphans. Ophans are not only penalized in front of death, they are also penalized in the access to education. Epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the survival rates. We identify three kinds of epidemics depending on how the epidemic shock alters the marginal efficiency of health expenditures. We first study the demographic dynamics, and prove that while a one-period epidemic shock has no permanent effect on income distribution, it can perfectly alter it in the short and medium run. We then study the impact of the three kinds of epidemics when they hit children and/or junior adults. We prove that while the three epidemics have significantly different demographic implications in the medium run, they all imply a worsening in the short and medium run of economic performance and income distribution. In particular, the distributional implications of the model mainly rely on orphans: if orphans are more penalized in the access to a high level of education than in front of death, they will necessarily lead to the medium-term increase in the proportion of the unskilled, triggering the impoverishment of the economy at that time horizon.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.pse.ens.fr/document/wp200816.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by PSE (Ecole normale supérieure) in its series PSE Working Papers with number 2008-16.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pse:psecon:2008-16

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 48 boulevard Jourdan - 75014 Paris
Phone: 01 43 13 63 00
Fax: 01 43 13 63 10
Email:
Web page: http://www.pse.ens.fr/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, . "vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth," Working Papers 2000-02, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2006. "Does longevity cause growth? A theoretical critique," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 363-376, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Anne Case & Darren Lubotsky & Christina Paxson, 2001. "Economic Status and Health in Childhood: The Origins of the Gradient," NBER Working Papers 8344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Nathan D. Grawe & Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Economic Interpretations of Intergenerational Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Determinants of Mortality," Working Papers 235, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 2002. "The Inheritance of Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 3-30, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: Parental Death, Poverty and School Enrollment," Working Papers 183, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2006. "Death and Development," 2006 Meeting Papers 61, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Oded_Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," Working Papers 2004-14, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Galor, Oded, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Francesco Ricci & Marios Zachariadis, 2006. "Determinants of Public Health Outcomes: A Macroeconomic Perspective," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_045, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Angus Deaton, 2003. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 113-158, March.
    Other versions:
  18. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Theophile, AZOMAHOU, 2006. "The Growth economics of epidemics," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  19. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes, 2003. "The Long Run Economic Impact of AIDS," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 475, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  24. Hazan, Moshe & Zoabi, Hosny, 2005. "Does Longevity Cause Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are over 16000 authors registered on RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.