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On-the-job search, productivity shocks, and the individual earnings process

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Author Info
Fabien Postel-Vinay
Hélène Turon

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Abstract

Individual labor earnings observed in worker panel data have complex, highly persistent dynamics. We investigate the capacity of a structural job search model with i.i.d. productivity shocks to replicate salient properties of these dynamics, such as the covariance structure of earnings, the evolution of individual earnings mean and variance with the duration of uninterrupted employment, or the distribution of year-to-year earnings changes. Specifically, we show within an otherwise standard job search model how the combined assumptions of on-the-job search and wage renegotiation by mutual consent act as a quantitatively plausible "internal propagation mechanism" of i.i.d. productivity shocks into persistent wage shocks. The model suggests that wage dynamics should be thought of as the outcome of a specific acceptance/rejection scheme of i.i.d. productivity shocks. This offers an alternative to the conventional linear ARMA-type approach to modelling earnings dynamics. Structural estimation of our model on a 10-year panel of highly educated British workers shows that our simple framework produces a dynamic earnings structure which is remarkably consistent with the data.

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Paper provided by PSE (Ecole normale supérieure) in its series PSE Working Papers with number 2005-31.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pse:psecon:2005-31

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  1. Magnac, Thierry & Roux, Sébastien, 2007. "Dynamique des salaires dans une cohorte," IDEI Working Papers 436, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joseph G. Altonji & Anthony Smith & Ivan Vidangos, 2009. "Modeling Earnings Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 14743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jerome Adda & Christian Dustmann & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2006. "Career progression and formal versus on-the-job training," IFS Working Papers W06/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Shintaro Yamaguchi, 2009. "Job Search, Bargaining, and Wage Dynamics," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-026, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Smith, Eric, 2009. "Wage Dispersion and Wage Dynamics Within and Across Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 4031, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jesper Bagger and Morten Henningsen, 2008. "Job Durations and the Job Search Model: A Two-Country, Multi-Sample Analysis," Discussion Papers 553, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  7. Julien Prat, 2007. "The Rate of Learning-by-Doing: Estimates from a Search-Matching Model," IZA Discussion Papers 2780, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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