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Discrete choice models of labour supply, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reform

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José M. Labeaga
Xisco Oliver
Amedeo Spadaro

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Abstract

In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of behavioural microsimulation models as powerful tools for the ex ante evaluation of public policies. The subject of our analysis is the impact of recent Spanish Income Tax reforms on efficiency and household and social welfare. We also analyze the likely effects of some basic income - flat tax and vital minimum - flat tax schemes. The analysis is carried out using a microsimulation model in which labour supply is explicitly taken into account. Instead of following the traditional continuous approach (Hausman 1981, 1985a, and 1985b), we estimate the direct utility function using the methodology proposed by Van Soest (1995). Our data come from a sample of Spanish individuals in the 1995 wave of the EC Household Panel. We show that in the Spanish case, the redistribution policies considered have only little impact on the efficiency of the economy. On the contrary, they strongly affect social welfare.

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Paper provided by PSE (Ecole normale supérieure) in its series PSE Working Papers with number 2005-13.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pse:psecon:2005-13

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Blundell, Richard William & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1987. "Unemployment and Female Labour Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Soest, A. van & Das, M., 2000. "Family labor supply and proposed tax reforms in the Netherlands," Discussion Paper 20, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-89, August.
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  4. Hausman, Jerry A, 1985. "The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1255-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jon Gruber & Emmanuel Saez, 2000. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerald Auten & Robert Carroll, 1999. "The Effect Of Income Taxes On Household Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 681-693, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bonin, Holger & Kempe, Wolfram & Schneider, Hilmar, 2002. "Household Labor Supply Effects of Low-Wage Subsidies in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 637, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  10. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 97(4), pages 635-59, December.
  11. Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(114), pages 175-208, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hilary Hoynes, 1993. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation Under AFDC-UP," NBER Working Papers 4407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ugo Colombino & Rolf Aaberge & Tom Wennemo, 2005. "Evaluating Alternative Representations of the Choice Sets in Models of Labour Supply," Econometrics 0510001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Arellano, M. & Bover, O. & Labeaga, J.M., 1997. "Autoregressive Models with Sample Selectivity for Panel Data," Papers 9706, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  16. Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino and Steinar Strøm, 1996. "Welfare Effects of Proportional Taxation: Empirical Evidence from Italy, Norway and Sweden," Discussion Papers 171, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  17. MaCurdy, Thomas, 1992. "Work Disincentive Effects of Taxes: A Reexamination of Some Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 243-49, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2005. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," PSE Working Papers 2005-02, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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  19. Macurdy, T. & Green, D. & Paarsch, H., 1990. "Assessing Empirical Approaches For Analyzing Taxes And Labor Supply," Papers e-90-11, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
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  1. Andrés J. Marchante Mera & Bienvenido Ortega Aguaza & José Sánchez Maldonado, 2006. "Las dimensiones del bienestar en las Comunidades Autónomas Españolas. Un análisis de Sigma y Gamma-Convergencia," Working Papers 2006-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Namkee Ahn, . "Life Satisfaction among Spanish Workers: Importance of Intangible Job Characteristics," Working Papers 2005-17, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  3. José M. Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, . "Measuring Changes in Health Capital," Working Papers 2005-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  4. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a Tool for Evaluating Redistribution Policies," Working Papers 20, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Understanding and Forecasting Stock Price Changes," Working Papers 2006-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Amedeo Spadaro, 2008. "Optimal taxation, social contract and the four worlds of welfare capitalism," PSE Working Papers 2008-38, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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