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Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations

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Jonathan A. Parker (Princeton University and NBER)
Bruce Preston (Columbia University)

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Abstract

This paper uses the consumption Euler equation to derive a decomposition of consumption growth into four sources. These are new information and three sources of predictable consumption growth: intertemporal substitution, changes in the preferences for consumption, and incomplete markets for consumption in- surance. Using data on the expenditures of households, we implement the decom- position for the average growth rate of consumption expenditures on nondurable goods in the U.S. from the beginning of 1982 to the end of 1997. Incomplete markets for trading consumption in future states lead to statistically signiÞcant and countercyclical movements in expected consumption growth: consumption growth is expected to be higher when the unemployment rate is high. The eco- nomic importance of precautionary saving rivals that of the real interest rate, but the relative importance of each source of movement in the volatility of consump- tion is not precisely measured.

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Paper provided by Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics. in its series Working Papers with number 140.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pri:wwseco:140

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
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  35. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olga gorbachev, 2007. "Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?," ESE Discussion Papers 161, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shawn Ni, 2007. "Excess Sensitivity in Consumption without Liquidity Constraint: Evidence from Monthly Household Panel Data," Working Papers 0714, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Salm, 2006. "Can Subjective Mortality Expectations and Stated Preferences Explain Varying Consumption and Saving Behaviors among the Elderly?," IZA Discussion Papers 2467, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Research series 200511-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  7. James Feigenbaum, 2005. "Heterogeneity vs Uncertainty in Anticipation of a Borrowing Constraint," Working Papers 230, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-069/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Liquidity and Trading Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Yasuyuki Sawada & Jeong-Joon Lee, 2006. "The Degree of Precautionary Saving: A Reexamination," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-448, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2007. "Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 3239, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2008. "Changes in Risk and the Demand for Saving," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 406-412, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "L’Intégration Européenne et la Soutenabilité Externe de l’Union Européenne: une application de la thèse de Feldstein-Horioka," GEMF Working Papers 2007-05, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
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