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Speculating on Home Improvements

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun-Soo Choi

    (Princeton University)

  • Harrison Hong

    (Princeton University and NBER)

  • Jose Scheinkman

    (Princeton University and NBER)

Abstract

We develop a speculation-based theory of home improvements. Housing services are produced from a mix of land and structures. Homeowners have an option to in- crease their structures (i.e. make improvements) holding fixed their land. Speculative improvements arise because overconfident homeowners mistakenly believe they can add to structures for a lower cost than a competitive construction industry. Improvements are increasing and convex in home prices. There is excessive home remodeling in equilibrium. And the change in the recoup ratio (the ratio of resale value of improvements to construction costs) is negatively correlated with construction cost growth control- ling for home price appreciation. We provide evidence consistent with our theory using data on the costs and recoup values of remodeling projects across U.S. cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun-Soo Choi & Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman, 2011. "Speculating on Home Improvements," Working Papers 1355, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:metric:wp022_2011_choi_hong_scheinkman.pdf
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    File URL: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4280&context=lkcsb_research
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    2. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    3. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1553-1604, August.
    4. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Huberman, Gur, 2005. "Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 805-827, May.
    5. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    6. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    7. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    8. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    9. Montgomery, Claire, 1992. "Explaining home improvement in the context of household investment in residential housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 326-350, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    2. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2023. "Finance Followership," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2023 0249, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    3. Ding Ding & Weicheng Lian, 2018. "The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China," IMF Working Papers 2018/261, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Thomas Crossley & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2020. "House Price Rises and Borrowing to Invest," IFS Working Papers W20/2, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Bian, Xun, 2017. "Housing equity dynamics and home improvements," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 29-41.
    7. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019.
    8. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael P. Ribas, 2023. "Unveiling the Price of Obscenity: Evidence From Closing Prostitution Windows in Amsterdam," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 677-705, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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