Do Extended Unemployment Bene ts Lengthen Unemployment Spells? Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market
AbstractIn response to the Great Recession and sustained labor market downturn, the availability of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits was extended to new historical highs in the United States, up to 99 weeks as of late 2009 into 2012. We exploit variation in the timing and size of UI bene t extensions across states to estimate the overall impact of these extensions on unemployment duration, comparing the experience with the prior extension of bene ts (up to 72 weeks) during the much milder downturn in the early 2000s. Using monthly matched individual data from the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS) for the periods 2000-2005 and 2007-2012, we estimate the e ects of UI extensions on unemployment transitions and duration. We rely on individual variation in bene t availability based on the duration of unemployment spells and the length of UI bene ts available in the state and month, conditional on state economic conditions and individual characteristics. We nd a small but statistically signi cant reduction in the unemployment exit rate and a small increase in the expected duration of unemployment arising from both sets of UI extensions. The e ect on exits and duration is primarily due to a reduction in exits from the labor force rather than a decrease in exits to employment (the job nding rate). The magnitude of the overall e ect on exits and duration is similar across the two episodes of bene t extensions. Although the overall e ect of UI extensions on exits from unemployment is small, it implies a substantial e ect of extended bene ts on the steady-state share of unemployment in the cross-section that is long-term.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section. in its series Working Papers with number 1450.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
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unemployment insurance benefits; extensions; duration of unemployment; unemployment exit rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2013-12-15 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LTV-2013-12-15 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
- NEP-MAC-2013-12-15 (Macroeconomics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2014. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation," NBER Working Papers 20273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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