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Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional and Industrial Factors

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  • Joseph Altonji
  • John C. Ham

Abstract

This article investigates the effect of external, national, and sectoral shocks on Canadian employment fluctuations at the national, industrial, and provincial levels. The authors assume that employment growth in each industry-province pair depends on U.S. growth; lagged Canadian growth at the national, industrial, and provincial levels; an aggregate shock; and shocks specific to each industry, province, and industry-province pair. They estimate that the U.S. and Canadian shocks account for two-thirds and a quarter, respectively, of aggregate variation. Sectoral shocks account for only one-tenth of aggregate variation, but represent 30 percent of the variation from Canadian sources. Copyright 1990 by University of Chicago Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section. in its series Working Papers with number 581.

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Date of creation: Nov 1985
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Handle: RePEc:pri:indrel:dsp01k3569433c

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Keywords: unemployment variation; sectoral shocks; factor analysis;

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  1. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January.
  2. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  3. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  4. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
  5. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-22, June.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  7. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  9. Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1951. "What Happens During Business Cycles: A Progress Report," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc51-1, October.
  11. Ashenfelter, Orley C & Card, David, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 761-81, Special I.
  12. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  15. John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1985. "(Innovation) Accounting for the Impact of Fluctuations in U.S. Variables on the Canadian Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 784-98, November.
  16. Aigner, Dennis J. & Hsiao, Cheng & Kapteyn, Arie & Wansbeek, Tom, 1984. "Latent variable models in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1321-1393 Elsevier.
  17. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September.
  18. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
  19. Fischer Black, 1982. "General Equilibrium and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 0950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  21. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  22. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
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