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The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example

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  • Lars E.O. Svensson

    (Princeton University, CEPR, and NBER)

Abstract

The introduction of inflation targeting has led to major progress in practical monetary policy. Recent debate has focused on the interest-rate assumption underlying published projections of inflation and other target variables. This paper discusses the role of alternative interest-rate paths in the monetary-policy decision process and the recent publication by Norges Bank (the central bank of Norway) of optimal interest-rate projections with fan charts.

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File URL: http://www.princeton.edu/ceps/workingpapers/127svensson.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies. in its series Working Papers with number 75.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:127svensson

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Keywords: Forecasts; flexible inflation targeting; optimal monetary policy.;

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References

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  1. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Forecast-Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-80, Winter.
  3. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The interest rate conditioning assumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library 24666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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Cited by:
  1. Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0898, European Central Bank.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Buiter, Willem H, 2006. "How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom? The Surprising Fragility of the Theoretical Foundations of Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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