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The Supply Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited

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  • Alan S. Blinder

    (Princeton University)

  • Jeremy B. Rudd

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

U.S. inflation data exhibit two notable spikes into the double-digit range in 1973-1974 and again in 1978-1980. The well-known “supply-shock” explanation attributes both spikes to large food and energy shocks plus, in the case of 1973-1974, the removal of price controls. Yet critics of this explanation have (a) attributed the surges in inflation to monetary policy and (b) pointed to the far smaller impacts of more recent oil shocks as evidence against the supply-shock explanation. This paper reexamines the impacts of the supply shocks of the 1970s in the light of the new data, new events, new theories, and new econometric studies that have accumulated over the past quarter century. We find that the classic supply-shock explanation holds up very well; in particular, neither data revisions nor updated econometric estimates substantially change the evaluations of the 1972-1983 period that were made 25 years (or more) ago. We also rebut several variants of the claim that monetary policy, rather than supply shocks, was really to blame for the inflation spikes. Finally, we examine several changes in the economy that may explain why the impacts of oil shocks are so much smaller now than they were in the 1970s.

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Paper provided by Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies. in its series Working Papers with number 1097.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:1097

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Cited by:
  1. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Röger, Werner & Székely, Istvan & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio, 2010. "Banking crises, Output Loss and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 15830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2009. "Fiscal policy with credit constrained households," European Economy - Economic Papers 357, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Özbek, Levent & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Analysis of real oil prices via trend-cycle decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3676-3683, July.

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