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Do Commodities Herd? Evidence from a Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility Model

Author

Listed:
  • Vassilios Babalos

    (Department of Accounting & Finance, Technological Educational Institute of Peloponnese and Department of Banking & Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Greece.)

  • Stavros Stavroyiannis

    (Department of Accounting & Finance, Technological Educational Institute of Peloponnese, Greece.)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

Commodities markets due to their unique characteristics as diversification tools have recently garnered investors’ attention especially through the development of commodity index financial products. This financialization process that started in the early 2000s and escalated after 2004 has precipitated price comovements among various types of commodities creating a proper setting for the examination of herding behavior. Employing a comprehensive dataset of investable commodities indices we examine the existence of herding behavior via static and time varying models. Our findings reveal a non significant anti herding behavior according to static model that is reversed when time varying models are in place. In particular the rolling window analysis reveals interesting patterns of the herding phenomenon. These behavioral patterns are corroborated through a time varying stochastic volatility model. Our results contain significant implications for investors, commodities producers and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Vassilios Babalos & Stavros Stavroyiannis & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Commodities Herd? Evidence from a Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility Model," Working Papers 201554, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201554
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
    2. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    3. Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Persistence in trends and cycles of gold and silver prices: Evidence from historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 345-354.
    4. Bahloul, Walid & Balcilar, Mehmet & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "The role of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting commodity futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-71.
    5. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chang, Tsangyao & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "The relationship between commodity markets and commodity mutual funds: A wavelet-based analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Babalos, Vassilios, 2019. "Herding behavior in cryptocurrencies revisited: Novel evidence from a TVP model," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 57-63.
    8. Wen, Shaobo & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei & Liu, Xueyong, 2019. "Dynamic impact of China's stock market on the international commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 564-571.
    9. Mohamad, Azhar, 2022. "Safe flight to which haven when Russia invades Ukraine? A 48-hour story," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Kumar, Ashish & Badhani, K.N. & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "Herding behavior in the commodity markets of the Asia-Pacific region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities; herding; time varying stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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