The Causal Relationship between House Prices and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests
AbstractThis paper analyses the causal relationship between housing activity and growth in nine provinces of South Africa for the period 1995-2011, using panel causality analysis, which accounts for cross-section dependency and heterogeneity across provinces. Our empirical results support unidirectional causality running from housing activity to economic growth for most of the provinces studied; bi-directional causality between housing activity and economic growth for Gauteng; and no causality in any direction between housing activity to economic growth in Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Our findings provide important insights for housing policies and strategies for South Africa. Specifically, housing sector might be an efficient growth-led instrument for all the provinces except Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201317.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
House Prices; Economic Growth; Dependency and Heterogeneity; Panel Causality Test;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-04-13 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2013-04-13 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-URE-2013-04-13 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Manoel Bittencourt & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Data," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics 201116, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014.
"Housing and the business cycle in South Africa,"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
- Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Housing and the Business Cycle in South Africa," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics 201323, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Fatma Zeren & Burcu Kilinc Savrul, 2013. "Revisited Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Selected European Countries: A Panel Hidden Cointegration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 18(1), pages 134-151, May.
- Hongbing HU & Meng SU & Wenhua LEE, 2013. "Insurance Activity and Economic Growth Nexus in 31 Regions of China: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 182-198, October.
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