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The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa

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Author Info

  • Margaret Chitiga

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Bernard Decaluwe

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Laval University, Quebec, Canada)

  • Ramos Mabugu

    ()
    (Financial and Fiscal Commission)

  • Helene Maisonnave

    ()
    (Financial and Fiscal Commission)

  • Veronique Robichaud

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Laval University, Quebec, Canada)

  • Debra Shepherd

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

  • Servaas van der Berg

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

  • Dieter von Fintel

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

Abstract

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201015.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201015

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Keywords: ECONOMIC CRISIS; COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; FORECASTING AND SIMULATION; ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEMS; CHILD POVERTY MEASUREMENT; SOUTH AFRICA;

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  1. Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
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Cited by:
  1. Mabugu, Ramos & Robichaud, Veronique & Maisonnave, Helene & Chitiga, Margaret, 2013. "Impact of fiscal policy in an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 775-782.

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