Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies
AbstractIdeally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. We make two forecasts of the winner of the popular vote in the U.S. Presidential Election. One is based on voters’ perceptions of how the candidates would deal with issues (problems facing the country) if elected. We show that this approach would have correctly picked the winner for the three elections from 1996 to 2004. The other is based on voters’ preference for policies and their perceptions of which policies the candidates are likely to pursue. Both approaches lead to a forecast that Democrat candidate Barack Obama will win the popular vote.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9829.
Date of creation: 04 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
forecasting methods; regression models; index method; experience tables; accuracy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2008-08-14 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-CDM-2008-08-14 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-FOR-2008-08-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-POL-2008-08-14 (Positive Political Economics)
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