Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies
AbstractIdeally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. We make two forecasts of the winner of the popular vote in the U.S. Presidential Election. One is based on voters’ perceptions of how the candidates would deal with issues (problems facing the country) if elected. We show that this approach would have correctly picked the winner for the three elections from 1996 to 2004. The other is based on voters’ preference for policies and their perceptions of which policies the candidates are likely to pursue. Both approaches lead to a forecast that Democrat candidate Barack Obama will win the popular vote.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9829.
Date of creation: 04 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
forecasting methods; regression models; index method; experience tables; accuracy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2008-08-14 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-CDM-2008-08-14 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-FOR-2008-08-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-POL-2008-08-14 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. Wilks, 1938. "Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 23-40, March.
- Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán, 2008. "Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 10, pages 29-34, Summer.
- Fair, Ray C, 1978.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Jones, Randall J. & Wright, Malcolm, 2008. "Predicting elections from politicians’ faces," MPRA Paper 9150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lichtman, Allan J., 2008. "The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 301-309.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009. "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper 16461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2014. "Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative," MPRA Paper 53579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.