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Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer

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  • Cummins, Matthew

Abstract

This working paper provides an overview of demographic trends that are upending the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region and the potential to capitalize on the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is the time-bound opportunity to catalyze economic growth and poverty reduction as the working age population expands due to falling birth and death rates. Using a variety of demographic variables, the paper describes the ongoing population boom in ESA alongside the move toward higher levels of savings and investment that can propel the production of more goods and services and hence greater income and opportunities. It then assesses the recent and likely trajectory of human capital in the region – a key determinant of the dividend – while also modelling an alternative policy path whereby governments immediately ensure that each newborn reaches their full physical and cognitive development while also completing secondary school. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of greater and better investment in human capital sectors, which will determine how much of the remaining dividend can be salvaged, while also discussing how UNICEF and development partners can help.

Suggested Citation

  • Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer," MPRA Paper 97735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97735
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97735/1/MPRA_paper_97735.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "Fiscal Space for Children and Human Capital in Eastern and Southern Africa: Options and Strategic Entry Points to Address Investment Gaps in 16 Countries," MPRA Paper 96410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    3. David Canning, 2011. "The Causes and Consequences of the Demographic Transition," PGDA Working Papers 7911, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    4. Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "The Macroeconomic and Social Investment Outlook for Children in Eastern and Southern Africa," MPRA Paper 97734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth Demographic transition Demographic dividend Labor supply Human capital Economic growth Social sector spending Human capital investment;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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