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Drivers and Impact of Food Inflation in India

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  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani
  • Sen Gupta, Abhijit

Abstract

Average food inflation in India during 2006 to 2013 was one of the highest among emerging market economies, and nearly double the inflation witnessed in India during the previous decade. In this paper, we analyse the behavior and determinants of food inflation over the recent past. Our main findings include that recent surge in food inflation in India is a result of various factors. On the cost side, agricultural wage inflation is found to be a universal driver of food commodities inflation, as well as the aggregate food inflation. The contribution of agricultural wages has increased significantly in the post MGNREGA era. Fuel inflation has a moderate impact on food inflation and the effects vary across commodities. Our analysis indicates limited role of fuel and international prices, except for in tradeables. Finally, results suggest significant pass-through effects from food to non-food and to the headline inflation.

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  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2017. "Drivers and Impact of Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 88721, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Ganguly, Kavery & Gulati, Ashok, 2013. "The Political Economy of Food Price Policy: The Case Study of India," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Amritkant MISHRA & Ajit Kumar DASH & Amba AGARWAL, 2023. "Quest of dynamic linkages between monetary factors and food inflation in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(635), S), pages 199-210, Summer.
    3. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Choudary Ihtasham Ali & Sami Ullah & Umar Ijaz Ahmed & Irfan Ahmad Baig & Muhammad Arqam Iqbal & Amjad Masood, 2022. "Can Food Inflation Be Stabilized By Monetary Policy? A Quantile Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 205-212.
    5. Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu & Imhotep Paul Alagidede, 2021. "Asymmetry in food price responses to monetary policy: a quantile regression approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Asharani Samal & Mallesh Ummalla & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: an evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Amrendra Pandey & Jagadish Shettigar & Amarnath Bose, 2021. "Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food inflation; India; Agricultural wage growth; SVAR; SVECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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