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Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case

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  • Bağdigen, Muhlis
  • Çetintaş, Hakan

Abstract

This paper takes into account recent advances in econometric techniques and examines Wagner’s Law of long-run relationship between public expenditure and GDP for the Turkish case over the period of 1965-2000. The relationship is supposed public expenditure to be an outcome, not cause, of growth in GDP. Causality must run from GDP to public expenditure, not other ways around. Using the co-integration test and the Granger Causality test, we empirically find no causality in both directions; neither Wagner’s Law nor Keynes hypothesis is valid for the Turkish case.

Suggested Citation

  • Bağdigen, Muhlis & Çetintaş, Hakan, 2003. "Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 8576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Dec 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    2. Shanaka Herath, 2009. "The Size of the Government and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Sri Lanka," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_08, Institute for Multilevel Governance and Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Zareen, Shumaila & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "An Analysis of the Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Endogenous Growth," MPRA Paper 56139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Achmad Solihin & Djoko Mursinto & Lilik Sugiharti, 2017. "Efficiency and Effectiveness of Government Expenditure on Education at Districts/Cities Level in East Java Indonesia," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(8), pages 1-91, August.
    6. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Testing Wagner's Law in the Presence of Structural Changes: New Evidence from Six African Countries (1960-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6.
    7. Baddou, Mehdi & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "What are the factors that drive economic growth? evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 111202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alimi, R. Santos, 2014. "A Time Series and Panel Analysis of Government Spending and National Income," MPRA Paper 56994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Alina Cristina Nuta & Florian Marcel Nuta & Viorica Chirila & Angela Roman & Andy Corneliu Pusca, 2015. "Testing the Relationship between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(4), pages 86-102, August.
    10. Alina Klonowska & Barbara Pawełek, 2022. "What we know and what we do not know about social security finance and macroeconomic stabilization? Evidence from EU countries," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 4, pages 455-483.
    11. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    12. Faqeer Muhammad & Tongsheng Xu & Rehmat Karim, 2015. "Impact of Expenditure on Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 231-236, February.
    13. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Shanaka Herath, 2012. "Size Of Government And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Analysis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(194), pages 7-30, July - Se.
    15. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public expenditure; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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