Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case
AbstractThis paper takes into account recent advances in econometric techniques and examines Wagner’s Law of long-run relationship between public expenditure and GDP for the Turkish case over the period of 1965-2000. The relationship is supposed public expenditure to be an outcome, not cause, of growth in GDP. Causality must run from GDP to public expenditure, not other ways around. Using the co-integration test and the Granger Causality test, we empirically find no causality in both directions; neither Wagner’s Law nor Keynes hypothesis is valid for the Turkish case.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8576.
Date of creation: 21 Mar 2003
Date of revision: 07 Dec 2003
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic and Social Research 6.1(2004): pp. 53-72
Public expenditure; economic growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," The Journal of Socio-Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700.
- M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
- Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
- Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
- Ganti, Subrahmanyam & Kolluri, Bharat R, 1979. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditures: Some Efficient Results for the United States," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 34(2), pages 225-33.
- John Thornton, 1999. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner's Law in 19th century Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 413-416.
- Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, December.
- A. F. Al-Faris, 2002. "Public expenditure and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1187-1193.
- Payne, James E & Ewing, Bradley T, 1996. "International Evidence on Wagner's Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 258-74.
- Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
- Hirotugu Akaike, 1987. "Factor analysis and AIC," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 317-332, September.
- Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
- Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
- Shanaka Herath, 2010.
"The Size of the Government and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Sri Lanka,"
sre-disc-2010_05, Institute for the Environment and Regional Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Shanaka Herath, 2009. "The Size of the Government and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Sri Lanka," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_08, Institute for the Environment and Regional Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shanaka Herath, 2012. "Size Of Government And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Analysis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(194), pages 7-30, July - Se.
- Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.