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An analytically solvable model for soccer: further implications of the classical Poisson model

Author

Listed:
  • Fry, John
  • Hastings, Tom
  • Serbera, Jean-Philippe

Abstract

In this paper we discuss an exactly soluble statistical model for soccer. By taking into account key features of soccer matches (goals are rare, goal-scoring patterns are not well understood) we arrive at a version of the classical Poisson model but with constraints on the expected total number of goals in a game. Closed form expressions are derived for expected scores and match outcomes. We are also able to reconstruct an empirically observed inverse strike-back effect pertaining to teams scoring consecutive goals. We produce analytical results for perfectly competitive soccer leagues where draws are tied to the average number of goals in a game. An empirical application to the 2016 UEFA European Championships is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fry, John & Hastings, Tom & Serbera, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "An analytically solvable model for soccer: further implications of the classical Poisson model," MPRA Paper 82458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82458
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/82458/1/MPRA_paper_82458.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D Dyte & S R Clarke, 2000. "A ratings based Poisson model for World Cup soccer simulation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(8), pages 993-998, August.
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    3. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2000. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
    4. Rodney Fort, 2007. "Comments on ``Measuring Parity''," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(6), pages 642-651, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Gaming; Sports; Stochastic Processes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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