IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/80079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An anatomy of the Spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors

Author

Listed:
  • Moral-Benito, Enrique
  • Viani, Francesca

Abstract

This paper aims to identify how much of the recent current account adjustment in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we consider a variant of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology with country-specific slopes and intercepts. The resulting residuals are negligible for most countries so that the positive analysis of current account decompositions provides a more informative assessment. According to our findings, around 60% of the 12 pp. adjustment of the Spanish external imbalance over the 2008-2015 period can be explained by transitory factors such as the output gap, the oil balance, and the financial cycle. The remaining 40% is explained by factors such as the cyclically-adjusted fiscal consolidation, population aging, lower growth expectations, or competitiveness gains, which can all be considered as more permanent phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Moral-Benito, Enrique & Viani, Francesca, 2017. "An anatomy of the Spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors," MPRA Paper 80079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80079/1/MPRA_paper_80079.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80193/8/MPRA_paper_80193.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Noton, 2015. "On the size of home bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 123-128, January.
    2. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    3. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2013. "The Post-crisis Narrowing of International Imbalances: Cyclical or Durable?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1062, OECD Publishing.
    5. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    6. Calista Cheung & Davide Furceri & Elena Rusticelli, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 923-944, November.
    7. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.
    8. Mr. Thierry Tressel & Mr. Shengzu Wang, 2014. "Rebalancing in the Euro Area and Cyclicality of Current Account Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 2014/130, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    10. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    11. Narcissa Balta & Juan Delgado, 2009. "Home Bias and Market Integration in the EU," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 55(1), pages 110-144, March.
    12. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    13. Lone Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "External Balance in Low-Income Countries," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 265-322.
    14. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    15. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    16. Mika, Alina, 2017. "Home sweet home: the home bias in trade in the European Union," Working Paper Series 2046, European Central Bank.
    17. Teresa Sastre & Francesca Viani, 2014. "Countries’ safety and competitiveness, and the estimation of current account misalignments," Working Papers 1401, Banco de España.
    18. Jordi Prat & Leandro Medina & Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2010/043, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Jonathan F Manning & Jesmin Rahman, 2013. "Rebalancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2013/074, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    3. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    5. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Guillaume Gaulier & Vincent Vicard, 2018. "Some Unpleasant Euro Arithmetic," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-21, CEPII research center.
    7. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
    8. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2019. "Episodios de deterioro de la cuenta corriente en Colombia: factores externos, cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 1061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Rodrigo, Alejandro, 2019. "The Spanish Current Account Revisited: Descriptive and Empirical Research from 1993 to 2018," MPRA Paper 96753, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    2. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Signe Krogstrup & Gustavo Adler & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mai Dao & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Luciana Juvenal & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Cyril Rebillard & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia &, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, February.
    4. Valerio Della Corte & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Methodological issues in the estimation of current account imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    6. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    7. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Moral-Benito, Enrique & Roehn, Oliver, 2016. "The impact of financial regulation on current account balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-166.
    9. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2007. "Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 349-374, July.
    12. Calista Cheung & Davide Furceri & Elena Rusticelli, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 923-944, November.
    13. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
    14. Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2015. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-74.
    15. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    16. Can Xu & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 759-787, September.
    17. Kangyin Dong & Xiucheng Dong & Qingzhe Jiang, 2020. "How renewable energy consumption lower global CO2 emissions? Evidence from countries with different income levels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1665-1698, June.
    18. Jayasooriya, Sujith, 2020. "Movement of Exchange Rate on Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth in South Asia: Panel ARDL," MPRA Paper 98733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dong, Kangyin & Sun, Renjin & Hochman, Gal & Li, Hui, 2018. "Energy intensity and energy conservation potential in China: A regional comparison perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 782-795.
    20. Gomes, Gabriel & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie & Paris, Anthony, 2018. "On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 60-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; global imbalances.;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.