Charting Technical Trading Rules and the Lottery of Technical Analysis: Empirical Evidence from Foreign Exchange Market
AbstractWe use trend-following, trend continuation and trend reversal pattern recognition techniques to apply technical charting rules to trading seven major currency pairs for the period of 1999 through early 2007. Our results suggest that the persistent popularity of technical analysis among practicing traders may be the result of a “lottery” wherein most of the participants end up with zero profits. However, the rest of the participants are much more likely to end up winning rather than losing. In this way, the popularity of technical trading rules may co-exist with the validity of market efficiency hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7849.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
market efficiency; technical analysis; forecasting; foreign exchange markets;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2008-03-25 (International Finance)
- NEP-MST-2008-03-25 (Market Microstructure)
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