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Computable General Equilibrium Simulations of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement

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  • Willenbockel, Dirk

Abstract

Building upon earlier work by Willenbockel (2013; MPRA Paper No.51501), this study provides an extended ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach enables a consistent integrated predictive evaluation of sectoral production and employment impacts, aggregate income and welfare effects of changes in trade barriers while taking full account of the macroeconomic repercussion arising e.g. from terms-of-trade effects, tariff revenue changes and intersectoral input-output linkages. The simulation analysis considers four distinct trade integration scenarios, which are based upon the agreed tariff reduction modalities and differ in their assumptions about export taxes, trade facilitation efforts and labour supply elasticities.

Suggested Citation

  • Willenbockel, Dirk, 2014. "Computable General Equilibrium Simulations of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 78069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78069
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    2. Lippoldt, Douglas, 2013. "Policy Priorities for International Trade and Jobs," 2013: Employment, Immigration and Trade, December 15-17, 2013, Clearwater Beach, Florida 182509, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
    5. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2013. "General Equilibrium Assessment of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA," MPRA Paper 51501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Xavier Cirera & Dirk Willenbockel & Rajith W.D. Lakshman, 2014. "Evidence On The Impact Of Tariff Reductions On Employment In Developing Countries: A Systematic Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 449-471, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional economic integration; Africa; Non-tariff barriers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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