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On Asymmetry of Exchange Rate Volatility in New EU Member and Candidate Countries

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Stavarek, Daniel

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine the exchange rate volatility in selected new EU Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) and candidate countries (Croatia, Romania, Turkey) using TARCH model and daily data from the period May 2004 – December 2006. Besides the volatility estimation, the paper analyzes the asymmetric effects. The results suggest that some symptoms of asymmetry were found in all exchange rates except for CZK/EUR. However, the most distinct effects are evident in Slovakia and Turkey where the appreciation of the national currency and the appreciation-side deviation from the target exchange rate contribute significantly to the increase in the exchange rate volatility.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7298.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Economic Perspectives 2.1(2007): pp. 74-82
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7298

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Keywords: asymmetry European Union exchange rate volatility TARCH models

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2006. "Credibility of Exchange Rate Policies in Selected EU New Members: Evidence from High Frequency Data," Working Papers IES 2006/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Viera Chmelarova & Gunter Schnabl, 2006. "Exchange rate stabilization in developed and underdeveloped capital markets," Working Paper Series 636, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Singh, Tarlok, 2002. "On the GARCH Estimates of Exchange Rate Volatility in India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 391-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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