The paper presents a unified model that generates the historical evolution of fertility and income per capita in relation to that of technology. An industrial revolution leads to a transition from the Malthusian Regime, where the agricultural society is dominant and income per capita remains roughly constant as population growth dilutes technological progress, into the Post-Malthusian Regime where the industrial sector is expanding and technological progress in this sector leads to an increase in both income per capita and population growth. Finally, economies move into the Modern Growth Regime, where the relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed into negative. A novel mechanism responsible for the demographic transition from high to low fertility hence a fall in population growth is that time consuming leisure goods become relatively more affordable due to technological progress and the associated increase in the market wage which leads to an increase in the opportunity cost of raising children. As a consequence, parents start choosing more leisure goods and fewer children.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
7281.
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