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Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues

Author

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  • Bernardo, Giovanni
  • Ruberti, Massimo
  • Verona, Roberto

Abstract

In this paper, we try to measure the semi-strong efficiency of the sports betting market. In particular, we aim to understand whether the efficiency of the market is realized in the case of fixed odds provided by bookmakers on the four major European football championships. By examining the trends of odds in the event of some major change in expectations about the teams’ results, i.e. when a team’s coach is replaced, we attempt to verify the argument that a profitable betting strategy for the bettor is likely possible. In this case, the market that we are taking into account will be inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66414
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66414/1/MPRA_paper_66414.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; semi-strong efficiency; sports betting market; fixed odds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

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