Does Financial Growth lead Economic Performance in India? Causality-Cointegration using Unrestricted Vector Error Correction Models
AbstractUsing contemporary models this paper explores the time-series properties of financial infrastructure and economic growth indicators to investigate the nexus between developments in financial intermediation with the economic growth for India over the 1971-2004 periods. Both over short-run and the long-run perspective the paper seeks to answer; whether the financial infrastructure variables are complementary or a substitute for economic performance? and in what way economic growth is affected by the financial infrastructural development indicators? We find evidence in favor of a short run “financial infrastructure led economic growth”. Finance is found to be a leading sector only in the short-term link in Granger causality tests with stationary variables. The study provides robust empirical evidence in favor of supply leading hypothesis for the Indian economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6154.
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Finance; Infrastructure; Development; Economic Growth; Lag-lead; Granger Causality; Cointegration; VAR; VECM; India;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2007-12-15 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-MAC-2007-12-15 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1991.
"Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth,"
Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209, April.
- Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 1996. "Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banker Sector Controls: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 359-74, March.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 223-39, May.
- Chandavarkar, Anand, 1992. "Of finance and development: Neglected and unsettled questions," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-142, January.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996.
"Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries,"
Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
- Panicos O. Demetriades & Khaled A.Hussein, 1995. "Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001), Department of Economics, Keele University 95/13, Department of Economics, Keele University.
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
- Panicos O. Demetriades & Philip Arestis, 1996.
"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence,"
Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001), Department of Economics, Keele University
96/16, Department of Economics, Keele University.
- Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 783-99, May.
- Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
- Bilge Kagan Ozdemir, 2009. "Banking Sector Stability During The Process Of Euro Adoption," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, Anadolu University, vol. 9(1), pages 123-1236, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.