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Does Financial Growth lead Economic Performance in India? Causality-Cointegration using Unrestricted Vector Error Correction Models

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Kamat, Manoj
Kamat, Manasvi

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Abstract

Using contemporary models this paper explores the time-series properties of financial infrastructure and economic growth indicators to investigate the nexus between developments in financial intermediation with the economic growth for India over the 1971-2004 periods. Both over short-run and the long-run perspective the paper seeks to answer; whether the financial infrastructure variables are complementary or a substitute for economic performance? and in what way economic growth is affected by the financial infrastructural development indicators? We find evidence in favor of a short run “financial infrastructure led economic growth”. Finance is found to be a leading sector only in the short-term link in Granger causality tests with stationary variables. The study provides robust empirical evidence in favor of supply leading hypothesis for the Indian economy.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6154.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6154

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Related research
Keywords: Finance Infrastructure Development Economic Growth Lag-lead Granger Causality Cointegration VAR VECM India

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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  1. Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 1996. "Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banker Sector Controls: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 359-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  5. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 783-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mohsin S. Khan & A. Senhadji Semlali, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Chandavarkar, Anand, 1992. "Of finance and development: Neglected and unsettled questions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-142, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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