Modelling and Forecasting Volatility of Returns on the Ghana Stock Exchange Using GARCH Models
AbstractThis paper models and forecasts volatility (conditional variance) on the Ghana Stock Exchange using a random walk (RW), GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), and TGARCH(1,1) models. The unique ‘three days a week’ Databank Stock Index (DSI) is used to study the dynamics of the Ghana stock market volatility over a 10-year period. The competing volatility models were estimated and their specification and forecast performance compared with each other, using AIC and LL information criteria and BDS nonlinearity diagnostic checks. The DSI exhibits the stylized characteristics such as volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and asymmetry effects associated with stock market returns on more advanced stock markets. The random walk hypothesis is rejected for the DSI. Overall, the GARCH (1,1) model outperformed the other models under the assumption that the innovations follow a normal distribution.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 593.
Date of creation: 07 Oct 2006
Date of revision: 07 Oct 2006
Ghana Stock Exchange; developing financial markets; volatility; GARCH model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2006-12-04 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ECM-2006-12-04 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-12-04 (Forecasting)
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