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Population with immigration: Turkey and the EU. Does a young population remedy to the aged?


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  • Özdemir, Durmuş
  • Rosch, Angi


Annual population growth rate in Turkey is as high as 1.1 per cent, while many EU countries have shrinking, and hence ageing, populations. In this paper we consider an age-structured population that consists of female natives and Turkish immigrants into the EU. Immigrants’ fertility and mortality schedule may differ from that of EU natives, their children may adopt it. We apply a discrete-time Leslie-type model which allows for immigration and the study of its long-run effects. We examine the contribution of EU natives and Turkish immigrants to the EU population in terms of age-specific reproductive values which measure the value of one female of a given age as a seed for future population growth. Genealogies are derived in terms of the realisations of a corresponding Markov chain running backward in time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55848.

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Date of creation: 09 May 2005
Date of revision: 30 May 2014
Publication status: Published in Policy Modeling International Conference, EcoMod, Istanbul, Istanbul Conference Proceedings.5(2005): pp. 1-20
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55848

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Keywords: Turkey and the EU; ageing populations; immigration; stochastic demography; stable populations; discrete-time Leslie-type model; age-specific reproductive values; Markov chain; genealogy;

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  1. Lloyd Demetrius, 1979. "Relations between demographic parameters," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 329-338, May.
  2. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
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