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Investigation on the Determinants of Turkish Export-Boom in 2000s

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  • Aysan, Ahmet Faruk
  • Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim

Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of Turkish export-boom after 2000 in the manufacturing sector. We mainly concentrate on cost and productivity aspects of the production in the manufacturing sector. Effects of productivity, wage and exchange rate are analyzed in the framework of the augmented unit labor cost model. Following the Edwards and Golub (2004) paper we use the dynamic panel data techniques for the analysis. In addition, the importance of the above mentioned factors is examined for the rising and declining sectors. We find that manufacturing export is negatively related to the unit labor cost (ULC). Decomposition of ULC into its two components also shows that an improvement in productivity increases export while an increase in nominal wages decreases it. We also find that nominal wage is an important factor in the declining sectors while productivity is the stimulus in rising sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5493.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5493

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Keywords: Manufacturing export; unit labor cost; wage; productivity; real effective exchange rate;

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  1. Golub, Stephen S & Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2000. "Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 221-34, May.
  2. Ercan Uygur, 2001. "Krizden Krize Türkiye: 2000 Kasým ve 2001 Þubat Krizleri," Working Papers, Turkish Economic Association 2001/1, Turkish Economic Association, revised Apr 2001.
  3. Sübidey Togan, 2005. "Turkey: Trade Policy Review," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1229-1262, 09.
  4. Sule Ozler & Erol Taymaz & Kamil Yilmaz, 2007. "History Matters for the Export Decision Plant Level Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry," ERC Working Papers, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University 0704, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Mar 2007.
  5. Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, 09.
  6. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203, December.
  7. Stephen S. Golub, 1994. "Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and Sectoral Trade Balances of Major Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 286-313, June.
  8. Erzan, Refik & Filiztekin, Alpay, 1997. "Competitiveness of Turkish SMSEs in the Customs Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 881-892, April.
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ltaifa, Nabil, 1992. "Effects of exchange rate risk on exports: crosscountry analysis," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1173-1181, August.
  10. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann Danzinger & Dierk Herzer & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Sebastian Vollmer, 2005. "The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 483, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Stephen S. Golub, 1994. "Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and G-7 Sectoral Trade Balances," IMF Working Papers 94/5, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1550, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Ozcelik, Emre & Taymaz, Erol, 2004. "Does innovativeness matter for international competitiveness in developing countries?: The case of Turkish manufacturing industries," Research Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 409-424, April.
  14. Stephen S. Golub & Janet Ceglowski, 2002. "South African Real Exchange Rates And Manufacturing Competitiveness," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(6), pages 1047-1075, 09.
  15. Bildirici, M., 2004. "Real Cost of Employment and Turkish Labour Market: A Panel Cointegration Tests Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 95-120.
  16. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  17. Arslan, Ismail & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Export Incentives, Exchange Rate Policy and Export Growth in Turkey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 128-33, February.
  18. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-74, June.
  19. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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Cited by:
  1. Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "International Business Cycle Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum 0903, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009.
  2. Cebeci, Tolga & Fernandes, Ana M., 2013. "Micro dynamics of Turkey's export boom in the 2000s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6452, The World Bank.

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