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ظاهرة الركود التضخمى فى الاقتصاد المصرى: دراسة تحليلية
[The Phenomenon of Stagflation in The Egyptian Economy: Analytical Study]

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Author Info
Awad, Ibrahim L.
Abstract

ملخص الدراسة فى ضوء نتائج التحليل النظرى والتطبيقي لأبعاد ظاهرة الركود التضخمى فى الاقتصاد المصرى، تنتهى الدراسة الى النتائج التالية: أن ظاهرة الركود التضخمي في الاقتصاد المصري يمكن إرجاعها إلي عدة عوامل يتعلق بعضها بارتفاع تكاليف الإنتاج ويتعلق البعض الآخر منها بالتغيرات الهيكلية في الاقتصاد المصري. فمن الناحية النظرية ، تبين أن الركود التضخمي في الاقتصاد المصري يمكن أن ينشأ نتيجة تأثير أي من هاتين المجموعتين أو كلاهما ومن الناحية التطبيقية، تبين أن الركود التضخمي في الاقتصاد المصري يحدث بسبب انخفاض تكلفة وحدة الناتج من الأجور، أو بسبب ارتفاع تكلفة السلع الوسيطة المحلية. هذا التزامن في المعدلات العالية للتضخم والبطالة في الاقتصاد المصري يجد تفسيره في استخدام الأساليب الإنتاجية كثيفة رأس المال من ناحية وارتفاع تكلفة الإنتاج المحلى بسبب ارتفاع تكلفة السلع الوسيطة المحلية من ناحية أخري. حيث أدي استخدام الأساليب الإنتاجية كثيفة رأس المال إلي التصاعد في معدلات البطالة ، وفي ذات الوقت ، أدي الارتفاع في تكلفة الإنتاج بسبب ارتفاع تكلفة السلع الوسيطة ، إلي ارتفاع المستوي العام للأسعار. Summary: The study analyzes and explains the phenomenon of stagflation in the Egyptian economy. Firstly, the study focuses on the theoretical attempts to explain the phenomenon of stagflation in the various schools of economics. Secondly, In the light of the theoretical explanation of the phenomenon of stagflation, the study discussed the potential reasons for the occurrence of the phenomenon in the Egyptian economy. Thirdly, econometric analysis is used to determine the factors and the most dominant factors behind the phenomenon of stagflation in the Egyptian economy. Fourthly, in the light of the theoretical and the empirical analysis, the study explains the phenomenon of stagflation in the Egyptian economy. The general conclusion of the study is that: the phenomenon of stagflation in the Egyptian economy might be referred to the higher of the cost of production and / or the structural changes in the Egyptian economy. The empirical analysis revealed that the phenomenon of stagflation in the Egyptian economy occurs because of the successive increases of the cost of production resulting from the higher of the cost of domestic intermediate goods, and the lower of the wages/output ratio. While the lower of the wages/output ratio explain the higher rates of unemployment, the high product cost explains the higher rates of inflation. Importantly, the persistent of the rate of inflation at high level may refer to the chronically budget deficit.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5465.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5465

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Keywords: ظاهرة الركود التضخمي: معدلات التضخم في الاقتصاد المصري : معدلات البطالة في الاقتصاد المصري : ظاهرة الركود التضخمي في الاقتصاد المصري :التغيرات الهيكلية في الاقتصادالمصري

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution

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  3. Wogin, Gillian, 1980. "Unemployment and monetary policy under rational expectations : Some Canadian evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-68, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Tobin, James & Swan, Craig, 1969. "Money and Permanent Income: Some Empirical Tests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 285-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Santomero, Anthony M & Seater, John J, 1978. "The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: A Critique of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 499-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1972. "The Expectations Hypothesis and the Aggregate Wage Equation: Some Empirical Evidence for Canada," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 39(153), pages 1-17, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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